Hernando, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

329
FXUS64 KMEG 191132
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
632 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across portions of the
  Mid-South today. Heat indices will range between 105 and 112
  this afternoon across eastern Arkansas, southeast Missouri, and
  portions of West Tennessee and northwest Mississippi.

- Triple digit heat indices will persist through the weekend,
  though scattered showers and thunderstorms will provide
  localized relief from the oppressive heat.

- The heat will return and intensify throughout the workweek,
  with dangerous heat indices in excess of 110 expected over much
  of the Mid- south by Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Dangerous heat and humidity will remain in place across much of
the Mid-South today. Deep tropical moisture remains in place with
precipitable water generally 2.0-2.3 inches across the CWA. This
will factor into the convective and heat-related impacts for this
afternoon.

Heat:

BLUF - the Heat Advisory was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning
for most areas west of the Mississippi River, including a few
counties in northwest Tennessee. Heat indices are forecast to
reach or exceed 110 by early to mid afternoon. The Heat Advisory
was expanded eastward around the periphery of the warning,
including areas along and west of a line from Quitman County, MS,
to Fayette County, TN, to Henry County, TN. Dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s, coupled with temperatures in the low to mid 90s,
will support this extreme heat. The decision to upgrade and expand
was partially based on the prolonged nature of this current heat
wave.

Thunderstorms:

We do expect a slight uptick in convective coverage today. We`ve
already seen showers develop to the southeast of KGWX (Columbus
radar) but several of the CAMs indicate more activity developing
this morning across north MS in an area of weak isentropic upglide
in the 300K layer. This activity is forecast to develop by later
this morning, perhaps as early as 7-10 AM. Like previous days,
there isn`t much shear to work with but there will be ample
instability given the hot/humid conditions. This means storms will
generally remain unorganized. The severe weather threat is low
today, but an isolated storm or two could cause localized gusty
winds. The other threat is localized heavy rainfall. This will be
maximized where storms cluster and outflow boundary interactions
result in longer duration of heavy rainfall. High melting levels
and precipitable water close to maximum climatology values (for
mid July) will result in high rainfall rates, but scattered storm
coverage should limit the flash flooding potential to isolated
areas and favor urban and other poor drainage areas that may be
affected.

MJ

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

A muggy night is underway with temperatures currently in the upper
70s to low 80s. Temperatures will not stray too far from where they
are as morning lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s
Saturday morning. Elevated southerly winds through the night will
continue to transport Gulf moisture to the Mid-South from what was
once a tropical disturbance. This moisture transport is largely on a
southeast path across northeast Mississippi as a stalled frontal
boundary hangs around southern Illinois. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop along this moisture transport and storm initiation
could be as early as 6 AM. Typical summer (pulse-like) convection is
expected with low confidence in severe thunderstorms.

The aforementioned northeast moisture flow will enhance cloud
coverage in addition to rain cooled surfaces, will eliminate heat
headlines east of the Mississippi River. Unfortunately, areas to the
west of the river do not get relief and will have heat indices
between 105-109. A Heat Advisory will go into effect at 11 AM until
9 PM for this area. Probabilities of heat indices exceeding 105
degrees east of the Mississippi River are 20% or less, so confidence
is too low at this time to expand in coverage the advisory.

Sunday is generally a rinse and repeat of Saturday as that stalled
frontal boundary remains parked to our north. No heat headlines have
been planned for Sunday at this time, but given the lack of a
synoptic pattern change, a Heat Advisory for along and west of the
Mississippi River could be warranted.

Precipitation chances will wean as we enter the work week and high
heat and humidity return with vengeance. The Mid-South is in a
moderate to high risk of extreme heat from July 26 through August
1. A 594 dam ridge will dominate the forecast and heat advisories
and possibly extreme heat warnings are likely. Heat advisories
appear more probable as the ridge will squash the slightest of
moisture and decrease dew points slightly, but typical hot spots
like the Delta Region may not be sparred. Plan now for ways to keep
cool as a heat dome looks to set up.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

MVFR to IFR CIGs are currently occupying portions of North
Mississippi and West Tennessee. As such, MEM/MKL/TUP have been
hovering between MVFR/IFR since around 09z. A few convective
showers have begun to develop in the vicinity of TUP, which have
produced some lightning. CAMs suggest that coverage should remain
high enough around TUP to allow for a TEMPO this morning for
TSRA. Additional thunderstorm development is likely past 16z,
which could impact MEM/MKL/TUP through 01z. VFR is then expected
to prevail at all terminals through the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Benign fire weather conditions will persist through the weekend as
wetting rain chances are on the rise. Hot and humid conditions
will persist with dry conditions returning early into the work
week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ001-007-010-011.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TNZ003-004-020-021-049>052-088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB